Outlook dims for People’s Party

From the Sept 15 by-election in Phitsanulok sprang theories on how the next general election will turn out for the biggest party three years from now.
There was a great deal of hope riding on the poll for the main opposition People’s Party (PP) which fought tooth and nail to defend its turf.
The party has experienced several disappointments in recent polls, both at the local and national levels. Prior to its dissolution on Aug 7, the Move Forward Party, the PP’s predecessor, failed to capture the Provincial Administrative Organisation (PAO) chairman seat in Ayutthaya. It was defeated by a rival with a solid, longstanding support base in the old capital.
Shortly after that, neighbouring Pathum Thani held its PAO chairman election. Even though the MFP did not field a candidate, the party would have stood little chance of winning considering that the competition saw one representing the ruling Pheu Thai Party and the other came from a local political group that formerly enjoyed close ties to former premier Thaksin Shinawatra who is well-respected by Pheu Thai.
Since the MFP was disbanded by the Constitutional Court for trying to subvert the constitutional monarchy, the PP has taken its place and is the new home for MFP MPs.
The first PAO chairman race for the PP was held in Ratchaburi.
The PP was confident of winning the local poll, declaring it would be the party’s “revenge” victory and a defiant display of its extraordinary resilience. After all, the Future Forward Party, the MFP’s predecessor, was also disbanded by the Constitutional Court for accepting an illegal loan from its leader, Thanathorn Juangroongruangkit, back in February 2020.
PP luminaries were mobilised for the PAO poll, including former MFP leader Pita Limjaroenrat who went out knocking on doors to reach out to voters. Mr Thanathorn also spoke rousingly at campaign rallies.
An observer said it would not be off the mark to argue that the PP was pulling out all the stops to push up its popularity rating in Ratchaburi, including trying to convert some unlikely supporters among the yellow-shirt faithful who strongly opposed the party for seeking to amend, if not abolish, Section 112 of the Criminal Code — the lese majeste law.
Ratchaburi boasts a large number of conservative voters and was thought to be a tough nut to crack for the PP.
As it turned out, the PP lost in the PAO poll, prompting the party to look to the next contest, this time a by-election in Phitsanulok.
It was, as the observer put it, an election the PP could not afford to lose.
The by-election in Constituency 1, encompassing city areas, was to fill a vacancy left by Padipat Santipada.
Mr Padipat won the seat in last year’s general election but lost it due to the Aug 7 Constitutional Court order that sent the MFP to its doom. The court banned 11 executive members, including Mr Padipat, from politics for 10 years on national security grounds and the premise that the party was a danger to the constitutional monarchy.
Mr Padipat had served on the MFP board before his expulsion — seen as a tactic to let him keep his MP status as he moved to a little-known Fair Party. The expulsion also enabled him to become a deputy House speaker, something which would have been impossible had he remained in the MFP which was in the opposition.
The main opposition party is barred from having a member serve as either a House speaker or a deputy House speaker.
The Phitsanulok by-election dealt a blow to the PP as its candidate, Nathachanon Chanaburanasak was beaten by a Pheu Thai opponent, Jadet Jantar, in a fiercely contested, two-horse battle.
The unofficial result revealed Mr Jadet received 37,209 votes, ahead of Mr Nathachanon’s 30,640.
Voter turnout was 54% of 138,705 eligible voters, with 67,849 valid ballots cast and 1,108 dud ballots.
The observer said the poll outcome, despite being less than welcoming for the PP, was quite telling. The low turnout showed an almost 20% drop from last year’s general election, which was attributed chiefly to a lack of an advance voting round and registered voters working or residing in other provinces, most notably Bangkok, who did not travel back to Phitsanulok to vote.
A substantial number of advance voters in last year’s poll had voted for the MFP. If they had returned to cast their ballots on Sept 15, they could have made a big difference to the outcome.
Also, the vote tally confirmed the PP won at most polling stations in urban areas but lost in places outside the city. This speaks to the PP’s tenacity in retaining its traditional voter bases that matter in the constituency.
However, it may not have done spectacularly well in augmenting its dominance beyond its strongholds.
If the PP continues to fail to garner more support closer to the next election three years from now, it will most likely struggle to achieve its ultimate goal of winning more than 250 seats, surpassing the majority threshold that would allow it to form a government solo. It will also make it difficult to push its legislative aims, among them the rewriting of the ultra-sensitive Section 112.
Although the regime-appointed Senate has gone and its successor has taken its place, attempts to rewrite the coup-sponsored 2017 charter are expected to encounter the same hurdles, according to observers.
The obstacles facing the bill to amend the double majority requirement for charter amendment referendums are widely seen as a clear message that any effort to overhaul the constitution or even tweak it section-by-section will be anything but a walk in the park, they noted.
The double majority refers to two conditions necessary before a referendum result can be considered binding under Section 13 of the Referendum Act. First, more than 50% of eligible voters must have participated in the referendum, and the majority of those who cast their votes must approve it.
However, the rule has drawn criticism from politicians for setting the bar high for referendums, making it challenging to meet the minimum threshold needed for approval and stalling much-needed charter reforms.
The House of Representatives amended the section to abolish this rule and replace it with a single majority, meaning that for a referendum to be adopted, it only requires more than half the votes cast by voters who turn out.
The Senate voted 179 to 5, with three abstentions, to pass the bill in its first reading, with some senators voicing opposition. But in the final reading early this week, the Senate voted 164-21 with nine abstentions to retain the double majority requirement.
In the wake of the Senate’s decision, a joint House-Senate committee will likely be formed to thrash out differences of opinion between MPs and senators and decide on the size of the majority needed to pass a referendum.
It could also delay the time frame for organising one, tentatively scheduled for Feb 2 next year, the same day as the provincial administrative organisation elections.
According to Thanaporn Sriyakul, director of the Political and Public Policy Analysis Institute, switching back to the double majority rule indicates that the majority of senators do not favour charter amendment.
The Senate’s move also suggests that Bhumjaithai’s alleged de facto leader, Newin Chidchob, may be avoiding ruffling feathers with the old power clique and is unlikely to push for changes that could disrupt the status quo, he said.
According to many observers, the Upper House is now dominated by senators believed to have links to Bhumjaithai. The so-called “blue” bloc, a reference to Bhumjaithai, is said to be the largest by far of the three factions in the new Senate, with at least 150 senators in this group. The chamber is made up of 200 members.
“The Senate’s vote on the referendum bill is likely to close the door on charter amendment,” said Mr Thanaporn.
Given the Senate’s decision on the referendum bill, he said the ruling Pheu Thai Party’s bid to amend Section 160 of the charter dealing with ethics for political officeholders will not get its support.
Section 160 outlines the prerequisites for individuals wishing to become ministers and says that they must be evidently honest and not have committed any severe ethical violations.
But the ruling party has already backed down from the proposal which drew strong resistance from several coalition partners including Bhumjaithai, the second largest party in the coalition government.
According to Mr Thanaporn, the fundamental principles of the coup-sponsored 2017 charter involve entrusting independent public agencies like the National Anti Corruption Commission (NACC) and the Constitutional Court with the power to keep politicians in check.
The Senate, meanwhile, is empowered to select members of these bodies, and it is now allegedly heavily affiliated with Bhumjaithai.
“No political party has complete control of the Lower House with 500 MPs. No party can successfully push for charter amendments without Mr Newin’s blessing,” he said.
The Senate’s support is crucial because charter changes require support from at least one-third of the Senate, or 67 votes, to pass.
“Political parties seeking a shift, regardless of their camp, must have control of the Senate. Pheu Thai and the People’s Party have already missed the chance,” he said.
Touching on the findings of a quarterly poll conducted by the National Institute of Development Administration (Nida), he said although Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra topped the survey with 31% support, second place was unoccupied.
Mr Thanaporn said he believed that 23% of the undecided were looking for someone who resembled former prime minister Gen Prayut Chan-o-cha, noting that he believed this group also cast its party-list vote for the United Thai Nation (UTN) Party co-founded by Gen Prayut.
The UTN won 13 party list seats compared with three captured by the Bhumjaithai Party in last year’s general election.
According to the analyst, it is no surprise that Bhumjaithai has adopted a conservative stance and voiced strong opposition to amendments to the lese majeste law, changes to ethical standards for political office holders and a blanket amnesty.
He added the coalition party’s stance is pretty much the same as Gen Prayut’s and Bhumjaithai Party leader Anutin Charnvirakul has adopted his “strengths”.
“Whether it is charter amendment issues or decisive action against provincial governors who are inactive, he has shown Gen Prayut’s strengths in him,” he said.
The perceived similarity with Gen Prayut could work in Bhumjaithai’s favour in the next polls three years from now.